Risk assessment of systems during development phase: an approach based on lifetime functions
Keywords:
risk assessment, lifetime function, optimizationAbstract
Quantifying the time-dependent risk associated with complex engineering projects is an essential task to ensure the success of these projects. Low technology readiness and maturity levels and uncertainties associated with different development scenarios and management decisions are among the risk mechanisms which may affect a system. Accordingly, monitoring the risk associated with a project during its development phase is necessary in order to achieve satisfactory outcomes. This paper investigates the applicability of system reliability concepts in assessing the risk associated with engineering systems during their development phase. A system-based approach to quantify risk associated with a systems, based on time-dependent system reliability principles applied through lifetime functions, is proposed. The approach starts with defining the probabilistic parameters associated with the development time of each component in the system. A measure of time-dependent system performance is established next and combined with the project consequences to compute the time-dependent system risk. In the presence of multiple scenarios associated with system development, risk profiles of each scenario are identified and compared. Moreover, a bi-objective optimization problem is formulated and solved to obtain the development scenarios which provide the lowest risk while minimizing the system development cost.
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