Wind climate scenarios in the Black Sea basin until the end of the 21st century
Keywords:
Black Sea, climate change scenarios, wind, 21st century, extreme speeds, average powerAbstract
The objective of the present work is to provide a comprehensive picture of the future wind dynamics in the Black Sea until the end of the 21st century. The results of the climate wind models are analyzed considering three RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) scenarios, RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Two different time intervals (each of 40 years) have been defined, near future (2021-2060) and distant future (2061-2100). For comparison, considering ERA5 data a 40-year time interval from the recent past (1980-2019) was also analyzed. The analysis is focused on two directions. The first is related to the maximum wind speeds at 10 meters, and the results indicate that higher wind speeds are expected in the Black Sea. Considering the high expansion of the offshore wind industry, the second direction is related to the analysis of the average wind power at 100 meters. According to the data analyzed, the coastal areas from the western and northwestern sides of the Black Sea are more energetic. Furthermore, in these nearshore areas, a relative enhancement of the wind power density between 20% and 50% is expected. Some hot spots that represent appropriate locations for future wind projects are also identified.
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